Investors have been on such a turbulent roller coaster that it’s easy to forget that the S&P 500 (^GSPC 0.74%) was up slightly through the first two months of the year.
With April coming to a close and the major indexes firmly in the red, investors may be wondering how long volatility will last, and if now is a good time to buy stocks or run for the exits.
Here are five lessons I’ve learned from major sell-offs over the last seven years, and how these lessons can help you navigate market uncertainty.
Image source: Getty Images.
1. Each sell-off is different
No one knows when the market will go down or why. But we do know that the circumstances that lead to a sell-off are never truly the same.
Through the first three quarters of 2018, the S&P 500 was pretty much flat. But in the fourth quarter, it began selling off due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war with China in his first term. The sell-off intensified, and the index was down around 20% year to date on Christmas Eve before staging an epic recovery, ending the year down just 6.2%.
The index then shot up a staggering 7.9% in January 2019 to make up for all the Q4 losses. If you hadn’t checked your portfolio for four months, it would’ve looked like nothing had happened.
The March 2020 pandemic-induced sell-off was a true flash crash — amplified by the instantaneous spread of news, sophistication of modern markets, and fear. As mandates took effect and vaccines progressed, sentiment shifted from panic to viewing the pandemic as a temporary phenomenon.
After rallying a staggering 47.5% between the start of 2020 and the end of 2021, the S&P 500 fell 19.4% in 2022. The sell-off was driven by valuation concerns, rampant inflation, and supply chain challenges. 2022 was a fairly reasonable sell-off in hindsight. Cooling inflation and resilient earnings growth set the stage for another epic two-year rally in 2023 and 2024, in which the S&P 500 gained 53.2%, driven by excitement for growth trends like artificial intelligence.
As in 2018, the 2025 sell-off has been a rapid pullback in response to geopolitical tensions and tariffs. Only this time, the Federal Reserve is in a completely different position. The Federal Reserve was raising interest rates into the fall of 2018, which fueled the subsequent sell-off. Then, Fed Chair Jerome Powell reversed course and cut rates in the summer of 2019, marking the Fed’s first rate reduction since 2008.
Still concerned about inflation, the Fed is hesitant to cut rates at this time, despite pressure from Trump and threats that Powell should be fired. The composition of a sell-off is always different, so it’s best to view our present-day pullback with context in mind. History can provide some insight, but it’s a mistake to assume a swift or straightforward road to recovery.
2. You won’t know it’s the bottom till it’s over
It’s easy to analyze the causes of past stock market sell-offs and identify their starting and ending points. But when you’re living through one, as we are now, it’s impossible to know when the bottom will arrive, if it has already happened, or if there’s a long way to go.
It felt like the damage from the fall 2018 and March 2020 sell-offs was so intense that it could take years to recover, when in fact it ended up being a matter of months. However, the 2022 bear market lasted nearly a year.
We’re still in a period of high uncertainty in the present-day sell-off. There could be lasting economic effects from tariffs and a recession, a resolution could be reached tomorrow, or anything in between could happen. We simply don’t know how long it will last, and admitting that we don’t know is an important step in avoiding speculation.
3. Top companies will go on sale for reasons that have nothing to do with the underlying investment thesis
One common thread among most sell-offs, regardless of their cause, is that investors tend to overweight near-term risks. When investors are pessimistic, they may be less willing to pay for potential earnings growth or gravitate toward stable companies like blue chip dividend stocks. This can lead to drastic sell-offs in excellent companies, even though the investment thesis hasn’t changed.
One of my favorite examples from recent years is Meta Platforms (META 2.65%). It’s hard to imagine, but in 2022, Meta Platforms fell below $90 a share. It was a perfect storm for the company, as TikTok was gaining popularity and challenging Instagram. Meta was pouring money into the metaverse and other virtual reality endeavors at a time when investors had little patience for spending on projects that didn’t contribute to the bottom line. To top it all off, there was a widespread sell-off in growth stocks.
Meta ended 2022 down a staggering 64%. During the worst of the sell-off in early November, Meta Platforms’ price-to-earnings ratio fell below 9. Meta could have done a better job managing expenses and addressing investor concerns. But the sell-off’s extent was magnitudes beyond what was reasonable, especially since Instagram Reels had been out since August 2020 and was gaining popularity as an alternative to TikTok.
The lesson is that sell-offs can present incredible opportunities to scoop up shares of excellent companies when they’re out of favor. The trick is to stick to high-conviction companies you understand in case the sell-off lasts longer than expected or stock prices continue to decline.
4. Invest with a long-term time horizon
Buying shares in top companies doesn’t work if it’s for the wrong reasons or time frame. Trying to time the market and play a quick bounce by speculating on companies you don’t understand is a great way to lose your shirt.
Maintaining a long-term time horizon alleviates the pressure caused by volatility and fluctuations in asset prices. This is especially important because emotions can flare up during sell-offs.
Again, it’s easy to look at past sell-offs and the reward of subsequent market highs as obvious times to buy in hindsight. However, in real time, sell-offs can be emotionally taxing. No one likes losing money. Seeing months or even years of gains evaporate in a flash can strain even the most seasoned investors.
By focusing on the big picture, you can let investment theses be your guide, rather than allowing stock prices to dictate true value.
5. Don’t take on more risk than you’re comfortable with
Perhaps the most important lesson of all during sell-offs is risk management. The stock market is merely a tool for reaching your financial goals. Letting the stock market work for you can be a path to wealth and financial success. But letting the stock market bully you around can lead to financial mistakes.
One of the easiest ways to feel adrift is to get caught in a riptide of market volatility. If you’re taking on more risk than you’re comfortable with, either through allocation or by using margin, you can amplify gains on the upside but also magnify losses on the downside.
It’s best to be true to yourself and invest in a way that complements your personal preferences and financial goals.
Benefiting from market sell-offs
All the lessons I’ve learned over the last seven years center around one common theme: pressure. The more you can limit pressure and anxiety during a sell-off, the better equipped you’ll be to make smart investment decisions.
The good news is that there are straightforward ways to reduce pressure. They include properly managing risk, focusing on the long term, investing in businesses with strong fundamentals, accepting that things could worsen before they improve, and being prepared for a prolonged downturn, even if it doesn’t happen.
If you can reduce pressure and control your emotions, stock market sell-offs can be tremendous, sometimes life-changing buying opportunities.
