Bitcoin faces a pivotal moment as $10 billion worth of BTC options approach expiration on May 29, 2025, with traders closely watching the $95,000-$105,000 price range. The cryptocurrency has fluctuated between these levels for two weeks following its recent surge to $105,000, creating tension between bulls and bears ahead of this critical derivatives event.
Market analysts highlight that 60% of the open interest resides in call options (bullish bets) between $100,000 and $110,000, while put options (bearish positions) cluster near $95,000. This setup creates potential volatility triggers if Bitcoin breaks decisively above $105,000 or below $95,000 before settlement.
The options expiry coincides with Bitcoin’s realized price climbing to $45,000 – a key on-chain metric indicating the average acquisition cost of all circulating BTC. This fundamental strength suggests long-term holders remain confident despite short-term price uncertainty.
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Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Critical Support and Resistance Levels
Bitcoin’s current consolidation follows a 40% rally from its April low of $75,000 to the $105,000 peak. The cryptocurrency now tests crucial support at:
- $98,000: Previous resistance-turned-support level
- $95,000: Options-driven liquidity zone
- $92,500: 30-day moving average
On the upside, traders eye resistance at $105,000 (recent high) and $112,000 (projected target from the ascending channel). CryptoQuant data shows daily realized profit yields between 0.10%-0.23%, suggesting moderate profit-taking without excessive speculation.
Ethereum’s $6,500-$7,200 Range Mirrors BTC Uncertainty
Ethereum moves in lockstep with Bitcoin, consolidating between $6,500 and $7,200 ahead of its own $3.8 billion options expiry. The second-largest cryptocurrency faces key tests at:
| Support | Resistance |
|---|---|
| $6,500 | $7,200 |
| $6,200 | $7,500 |
Notably, Ethereum’s network activity shows 28% more daily transactions than last month, with decentralized exchange volume hitting $15 billion weekly – a sign of growing DeFi utilization despite price stagnation.
The $10B Options Expiry: Potential Market Impacts
Today’s massive derivatives event could trigger several outcomes:
- Bull Case: Bitcoin holds $100,000, forcing $4.2B in call options to payout
- Bear Case: Breakdown below $95,000 invalidates 65% of bullish contracts
- Neutral Scenario: Price remains rangebound, favoring option sellers
Historical data from CoinDCX shows that 80% of large options expiries since 2023 caused 5-15% volatility spikes within 48 hours of settlement. Market makers have increased hedging activity, with perpetual funding rates rising to 0.015% hourly – the highest level in three months.
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The options expiry outcome will likely set Bitcoin’s trajectory for June, with analysts at Cryptonary predicting either a breakout to $112,000 or correction to $88,000 depending on settlement results. Ethereum’s price action remains tied to BTC’s movements, though its stronger fundamentals could fuel outperformance in a bullish scenario.
- Realized Price
- The average price at which all circulating Bitcoin was last transacted, used to assess market health.
- Options Expiry
- Contract settlement date when derivatives traders must fulfill obligations or close positions.
- RP Yield
- Realized Profit Yield measures daily profit-taking as percentage of market capitalization.
- Liquidity Zone
- Price levels with concentrated trading activity that can accelerate market movements.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
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