Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s not climbing just because of hype. Instead, there’s real macro fuel behind the move. With the CPI dropping tomorrow, some volatility may be expected. In this setup though, it might actually help push things further.
Despite some correction at press time, Bitcoin [BTC] has rallied by nearly 10% from the $109k zone, locking in five straight higher highs this week. In fact, before it fell slightly on the charts, the cryptocurrency’s wick hit $122,056, reaffirming BTC’s strong underlying bid support.
That being said, is it still too soon to expect a smooth rally from here? June’s macro data is set to release on 15 July, putting volatility back on the table.
As it stands, Bloomberg is projecting a 0.3% rise in core CPI, marking the largest month-over-month increase in five months. This can be largely attributed to the pass-through effects of Trump’s recent tariffs.
Source: Bloomberg
However, is the market beginning to defy these broader macro stresses? Bitcoin’s 12% weekly gains may be the first clear sign of that shift. Despite renewed tariff threats, there’s been no post–Liberation Day-style collapse. And, according to AMBCrypto, that’s no coincidence.
Instead of derailing the rally, macro FUD might be fueling it. In that case, could CPI volatility become a launchpad rather than a threat, reinforcing Bitcoin’s current risk-on sentiment?
Bitcoin is reacting to a broken fiscal system
Bitcoin’s vertical price action, rising in tandem with Treasury yields and inverse to a weakening U.S. dollar, reflects an unusual macro dislocation.
As the Kobeissi Letter noted, the trigger may be Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill,” passed on 03 July. This has already aligned with a $15,000 jump in BTC.
Markets are reading this as a response to growing fiscal strain, especially with the U.S posting a $316 billion deficit in May alone. In turn, pulling capital out of bonds and into risk assets. The 10-year yield also hit 4.43%, a monthly high, as investors reassessed their risk.
Source: Trading Economics
In short, tariffs may be eroding dollar strength, pushing yields up, and helping Bitcoin punch through resistance levels.
Why? When import prices rise, inflation picks up. That forces the government to pay more in interest on its debt (since Treasury yields climb), while slower growth drags down tax revenues (reflected in a falling dollar).
The result? A fiscal squeeze that’s driving capital into Bitcoin, with BTC’s latest price action underlining that. It’s a key macro divergence, one that means high interest rates may now be a catalyst, potentially softening any macro-driven volatility ahead.
