You know what they say: The first 20 years are the hardest.
The failure rate for first marriages is roughly 48%, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, but couples who can stand each other for two whole decades get a traditional name for their 20th anniversary wedding anniversary: China.
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This seems appropriate for Apple (AAPL) as well. As the tech giant gears up for the 20th anniversary of the iPhone in 2027, some 80% of the company’s products are made in China and many people are just about married to their smartphones.
The iPhone is one of the world’s most popular phones: Apple has sold more than 2.3 billion of them worldwide since the device launched in 2007.
Last year, however, Apple lost its spot as the top smartphone seller in China — the world’s biggest smartphone market — to local rivals Vivo and Huawei.
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The Cupertino, Calif., company is reportedly planning a major shakeup for this anniversary, including a redesigned Pro model with more glass elements and potentially a foldable iPhone.
The name of the 20th anniversary iPhone is not yet confirmed, but it is expected to be the iPhone 19 or iPhone XX.
The computer and iPhone company has deviated from standard numbering for milestone anniversaries, skipping the iPhone 9 and using iPhone X for the 10th anniversary, CNET reported.
Apple looks to get ahead of tariffs
Apple, scheduled to report earnings on May 1, is among the companies that are most exposed to President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Trump has imposed levies of 145% on Chinese goods, though he exempted imports of electronics such as smartphones and computers from his so-called reciprocal tariffs.
Administration officials warned, however, that the exemptions were temporary and could change over the coming weeks.
China has raised tariffs on U.S. imports to 125%, but it has also quietly rolled back the levies on some semiconductors made in America.
A Reuters poll showed that China’s factory activity likely contracted in April as what Trump called his Liberation Day package of tariffs brought a sudden halt to two months of recovery.
Meanwhile, Apple worked to get ahead of the tariffs by shipping 600 tons of iPhones from India to the US.
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The company is also leaning more heavily on its India operations for devices heading for America because that country faces a lower (26%) reciprocal tariff compared with China.
Apple right now has enough capacity in India to meet roughly a third of annual U.S. demand, Bloomberg reported.
But while Apple’s iPhone manufacturing in India matches China in quality, making the extraordinarily complex 20th anniversary iPhones outside China remains doubtful
The company is working on two iPhone models to celebrate 20 years on the market; the first iPhone was unveiled in 2007.
Firm sees better-than-feared outcomes from Apple
But every time Apple has come out with a brand-new product or design, it’s always been built in China for the first run.
The 20th Anniversary phone requires new parts and production techniques, “making it far from a certainty that Apple will be able to build those outside of China,” Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman said. “At some point, yes, but certainly not by the year 2027.”
According to the Financial Times, Apple hopes to eventually source all U.S. iPhones from India.
Apple shares are down 16% since January but up nearly 22% from a year ago.
Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring raised the investment firm’s price target on Apple to $235 from $220 and maintained an overweight rating on the shares, according to The Fly.
The analyst said he expected March-quarter results and June-quarter guidance to “modestly” exceed consensus, though he saw some downside to June-quarter gross margins given the tariff backdrop.
Woodring forecast March-quarter revenue of $95.7 billion and earnings per share of $1.64, both slightly ahead of the Wall Street analyst consensus, on strong product pull-forward, a weaker U.S. dollar and 12% services growth.
Related: Apple gets a huge break from Trump tariffs
JP Morgan affirmed an overweight rating on Apple with a $245 price target into the company’s results.
The firm is positive on the shares, seeing a positive setup into the earnings report with the likelihood of “better-than-feared outcomes” in revenue and gross margin.
Investors are looking to price in disrupted demand as well as cost headwinds stemming from the tariffs on China, JP Morgan said.
The investment firm expects “modest pull-forward in demand,” driven partly as consumers upgrade their equipment and partly as companies fill inventories ahead of potential price raises. That should support stronger-than-expected revenue in the second quarter and likely will sustain into Q3.
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