Bitcoin has just blasted-off past $100,000, and we are imminently approaching the previous all-time high of $109,000.
But here is the issue on every trader’s mind: is this a mock-up for a double top or is it just the beginning of another explosive bull run?
If you’ve been in the crypto game for more than a minute, you know the stakes.
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Double tops have wrecked portfolios before, trapping latecomers in drawn-out, gut-wrenching bear markets. But this time, the signals are mixed, and the data is stacking up on both sides.
Let’s break down the strongest technical and macro reasons for both scenarios — why Bitcoin could crash and why it could blast through $160K this year.
First, let’s deal with the dirty bear case, the one nobody wants to hear. It’s all about diminishing returns.
📉 Diminishing Percentage Returns — The Slowdown Nobody Talks About
From the bottom of each bear market to the peak of each bull run, Bitcoin’s returns have been shrinking:
- 2013: 10,000% gain
- 2017: 2,100% gain
- 2021: 600% gain (assuming $109K was the top)
That’s an 80% drop in percentage gains from 2017 to 2021 and another 71% drop to this cycle. If that pattern holds, $109K might already be the peak. This is the grim math that hardcore bears are clinging to — a 70–80% reduction in returns each cycle is a clear sign of a maturing asset.
Bitcoin’s tight correlation with traditional markets adds another layer of risk. Here’s why:
- Buffett Indicator: Currently at 188% — nearly 2x historical norms.
- Shiller CAPE Ratio: At 34, double its long-term average of 17.
These are the kinds of valuations you’d expect before a financial meltdown, not during a bull run. If these indicators mean what they historically have, we’re talking about a major correction in the stock market — the kind that drags down everything, including Bitcoin.
And remember, Bitcoin isn’t just correlated — it’s hypersensitive. When the S&P catches a cold, Bitcoin gets pneumonia.
Sure thing: Enough of that gloom-and-doom talk; let’s discuss how Bitcoin might not only survive but even thrive in this rough passage.
🚀 The Halving Effect — The Real Supply Shock
Every four years, Bitcoin’s block reward gets cut in half. This is more than just a supply tweak — it’s the most predictable shock in finance. Here’s the math:
- 2016 Halving to 2017 Top: 3,000% gain over 520 days
- 2020 Halving to 2021 Top: 675% gain over 544 days
Now, if this cycle follows the same pattern, we’re looking at a 154% gain from the 2024 halving price. That lines up with a $160,000 Bitcoin by this October.
Here’s the real bull argument — institutional money is piling into Bitcoin like never before:
- During the 2021 peak, public companies held 183,000 BTC.
- Today, that number is a staggering 765,000 BTC.
- That’s 5% of Bitcoin’s total supply, not counting ETFs, whales, or countries.
This kind of accumulation isn’t just noise — it’s a structural shift. It’s the kind of leverage that could send Bitcoin to $250K or more if the momentum holds.
