Donald Trump’s new global tariff regime could be great for Brazil, it turns out. Here’s why.
China, which Trump hit with new tariffs of 145% last month, has of course imposed its own retaliatory measures. Beijing is aiming its guns at American farmers, who make up an important slice of Trump voters.
Flash back to last year, when China was one of the three largest destinations for US agricultural products. According to the Department of Agriculture, these exports repre- sented close to $25 billion in value in 2024. They are unlikely to reach that number this year.
In March, President Xi Jinping announced extra tariffs of 15% on US chicken, wheat, corn, and cotton and a 10% increase on sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, seafood, fruits, vegetables, and dairy. When Trump raised the bar, China followed with tariffs of 125% on US soybeans.
Chinese consumers will not starve. Brazilian farmers can easily replace American products with their own soybeans and corn. They also have chicken and eggs. Fortunately for them, Brazilian chicken farms escaped the bird flu outbreak, and Brazilian farmers are ready to ship their birds to Asia.
Japan could be another new outlet. Japan imported 40% of its beef from the US last year, but new American tariffs on auto imports have offended Tokyo. Why not try Brazilian meat? That’s what President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva suggested on a recent trip to Japan. The message is the same in Europe. In December, the EU signed a deal with Mercosur that would eliminate 90% of tariffs between Europe and the South American group of Argentina, Bolivia, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Brazil. The agreement awaits ratification by the constituent EU states; Brazil’s Finance Minister Fernando Haddad visited the EU at the end of March to emphasize the benefits of the deal. Ironically, the Trump-created new world order could also support increased exports of Brazilian shoes to the US. Americans, deprived of cheap Chinese footwear, could switch to Brazilian models. With its abundant sup- ply of leather, Brazil is the biggest producer of shoes outside of Asia.
