Donald Trump’s tariff deadline looms

Hello and welcome to the working week.

Anyone for taco? As all of you fans of the Unhedged newsletter will know, my colleague Rob Armstrong’s delightful acronym for Trump Always Chickens Out has caused quite a stir in Washington and Wall Street. The July 9 deadline set by Donald Trump to introduce his reciprocal tariffs is almost upon us. Will the US president blink?

Word is that White House officials are seeking to strike narrower bilateral trade deals to avoid the harshest tariffs threatened by Trump.

What we do know is that time has run out on a US-EU trade deal being struck. The two sides are aiming for a less detailed “agreement in principle”, according to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen. And it’s a similar story elsewhere. South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung has noted rather depressingly that “the two sides are not really clear on what they want”.

Want some good news? You can keep up to date with the latest twists and turns with a click of the mouse, on the FT Trump tariff tracker.

In Europe, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will host a two-day Ukraine recovery conference in Rome, more than three years after Russia’s full scale invasion began. The effort will presumably have the blessing of a new local resident: Pope Leo XIV.

Crossing the border from the EU to the UK will be France’s President Emmanuel Macron, arriving in London for a state visit, destined to involved conversations about migrant crossings over the English Channel as well as Anglo-French trade relations.

Also in London, we reach a landmark moment in the Post Office Horizon IT scandal on Tuesday, as the inquiry investigating what became the biggest miscarriage of justice in British legal history publishes volume one of its final report. This document will focus on the human impact of the scandal and the compensation, which some are still waiting to be paid. The report’s publication will be followed by remarks by inquiry chair Sir Wyn Williams, livestreamed on the inquiry’s YouTube channel.

Summer in the northern hemisphere, not to mention the slow return in the US after the July 4 holiday, means a fairly thin run of corporate and economic announcements this week.

The US Federal Reserve will publish the minutes from its last rate-setting meeting on Wednesday, no doubt fuelling an onslaught of social media posts from Trump about the future of Fed chair Jay Powell.

The main UK data point this week will be the monthly GDP update on Friday, which British chancellor Rachel Reeves will be watching as nervously as we are all are about the weather report.

The central bankers will be busy on the speaker circuit over the coming days. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon will also be giving a speech at the Irish foreign ministry in Dublin on Thursday.

Travel will be a theme of the market reports with Delta Air Lines, Heathrow, Norwegian Air and Jet2 revealing latest figures, giving an indication of how many of us are getting away this year and the health of the sector.

One more thing . . . 

Talking of which, I am off for a family break to Cairo, a special trip to mark the end of significant exams for two of my three kids as well as a treat for the other one, an archaeology student.

I am looking forward in particular to visiting the gargantuan new Grand Egyptian Museum, despite the display of the complete Tutankhamun collection uncovered by Howard Carter having its opening postponed due to the Middle East conflict. You can read the FT’s review of this wonder of the modern world here.

The Week Ahead will be back with you next Sunday thanks to my colleagues on the FT newsletter team. And you can email me your thoughts about upcoming events at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, just hit reply. Have a great week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Bakkavor general meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Greencore. If approved, the deal is expected to complete in early 2026

• Deutsche Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel speaks on “The German economy: navigating cyclical fluctuations and boosting long-term growth” at the Ragnar Nurkse lecture in Tallinn, Estonia

• EU: May retail trade figures

• Germany: May production index

• Japan: Consumption Activity Index

• UK: Halifax July House Price Index

• US: Conference Board employment index

• Results: Ferrexpo Q2 production report, Galp Energia Q2 trading update, Shell Q2 quarterly update

Tuesday

• Just Eat Takeaway extraordinary general meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Prosus. If approved, the deal is expected to complete before the end of the year

• The Post Office Horizon IT Inquiry publishes volume one of its final report.

• Australia: interest rate decision

• Japan: June bank lending figures

• Results: Begbies Traynor FY, Kinnevik HY, OMV Q2 trading update, Optima Health FY, SIG trading update, Unite Group trading update and Q2 fund valuations, Victrex Q3 trading update

Wednesday

• Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor Andrew Hauser gives a speech on

  “What Has Australian Macroeconomic Thought Achieved in the Past Century — and Where Can it Contribute in the Next?” at the Australian Conference of Economists in Sydney

• Philip Lane, executive board member of the European Central Bank, will deliver a speech on a broad perspective on the ECB’s monetary policy agenda at the House of the Euro in Brussels, Belgium.

• OECD Employment Outlook report

• Germany: Q1 population data

• UK: July Financial Stability Report from the Bank of England.

• US: Federal Open Market Committee minutes from the June 17-18 meeting.

• Results: Galliford Try July trading update, Gym Group HY pre-close trading update, Hunting trading statement, Jet2 FY, Porsche HY pre-close call, Young & Co’s Brewery AGM trading statement, Zigup FY

Thursday

• Sarah Breeden, deputy governor, financial stability, at the Bank of England speaks at the Annual Chapman-Barrigan lecture series on “Weathering the storm: stability in a changing climate”

• JPMorgan Chase chief executive Jamie Dimon speaks and takes part in a Q&A at an event at Ireland’s foreign ministry

• London’s Court of Appeal to hear the latest round of Pfizer and Moderna’s legal battle over their rival Covid-19 vaccines, after the High Court ruled in 2024 that Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech had infringed one of Moderna’s patents and was liable to pay damages in relation to sales after March 2022

• Germany: June Consumer price index (CPI) and harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• South Korea: interest rate decision

• UK: RICS residential housing market survey. Separately, the UK government publishes universal credit statistics on two-child policy for April, with additional data on benefit cap, disability benefits and demographics

• Results: ConAgra Brands Q4, DCC AGM trading statement, Delta Air Lines Q2, Dr Martens AGM trading update, Fast Retailing Q3, Gerresheimer Q2, Grafton trading update, Liontrust Asset Management Q1 trading update, PageGroup Q2 trading update, Seven & i Holdings Q1, Severn Trent Q1 trading update and AGM, Tata Consultancy Services Q1, Trifast FY and AGM, Vistry trading update

Friday

• Walgreens Boots Alliance holds a special meeting of shareholders to vote on the proposed acquisition of the company by Sycamore Partners. If approved, the deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025

• IEA Oil Market Report

• Canada: June labour force survey

• France: June CPI inflation rate data

• UK: June GDP estimate

• Results: DNB Bank Q2, Heathrow June traffic figures, Norwegian Air Q2, Ryohin Keikaku Q3

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Brazil: conclusion of the Brics Leaders’ Summit 2025 at the Museum of Modern Art in Rio, with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin notable by their absence from among the leadership of the 11 member states

• France: Paris Fashion Week Haute Couture Womenswear Fall/Winter 2025/2026 begins in the French capital

• Spain: the first bull run of the annual Festival of San Fermin starts at 8am, when the animals are released on a half-mile closed course to Pamplona’s bullfighting stadium, the Plaza de Toros

• UK: 20th anniversary of the 7/7 attacks in London, when four homegrown suicide bombers hit three Tube trains and a bus, killing 52 others and injuring hundreds more

• US: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meets for talks with President Donald Trump, mainly about the war in Gaza and finding a peace settlement

Tuesday

• Malaysia: Asean foreign ministers meeting and related meetings begins in Kuala Lumpur, continuing until Friday

• UK: King Charles III and Queen Camilla host French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte Macron at Windsor Castle at the start of a three-day state visit. Macron is due to address parliament in Westminster before dining with the royal family

• UK: a two-day judicial review brought by Save Wimbledon Park is due to begin at London’s High Court, challenging the All England Tennis Club’s plans to build 38 extra courts and an 8,000 seater stadium on Wimbledon Park

Wednesday

• Taiwan: annual “Han Kuang” exercises, to simulate defending the island against Chinese attacks, begin, continuing until July 18

• UK: Infected Blood Inquiry due to publish an additional report on compensation, with inquiry chair Brian Langstaff giving a short statement. It follows two days of hearings in May about the timeliness and adequacy of the UK government’s response to compensation

• US: Deadline set by President Donald Trump for the introduction of his numerous “reciprocal” tariffs, including 50 per cent on EU imports, which he threatened to impose before pausing their introduction in early April

Thursday

• Belgium: Ursula von der Leyen is to face a European parliament no-confidence vote in latest challenge to the European Commission president, the first time since 2014 that the head of the commission has faced such a move. However, the vote will mainly be symbolic as she is expected to survive

• Italy: Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni hosts a two-day Ukraine recovery conference in Rome

• UK: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron lead a UK-France Summit, expected to discuss migrants and small boats policy

• UK: the Royal Institute of British Architects announces the winners of this year’s RIBA National Awards for architectural excellence

Friday

• Singapore: World Aquatics Championships begin, continuing until August 3

• UK: General Synod, the Church of England’s legislative body, begins a five-day meeting on the University of York’s campus, with an opening address by the Archbishop of York Stephen Cottrell

Saturday

Sunday

• Japan: Chinreisha Festival (Spirit-Pacifying Shrine) at the Yasukuni Shrine dedicated to all of those who died in wars or incidents since 1853 and who cannot be enshrined in the Main sanctuary, in other words enemies of Imperial Japan

• UK: 40th anniversary of Live Aid concerts

• US: first anniversary of the shooting of Donald Trump at a rally ahead of last year’s presidential election