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France’s Socialist party has threatened to launch a no-confidence vote that could topple the country’s fragile government after months of negotiations over a controversial pensions reform ended without a deal.
Prime Minister François Bayrou had initiated a “conclave” on President Emmanuel Macron’s cornerstone reform — which raised the retirement age from 62 to 64 — in a bid to maintain enough support for his governing coalition to survive in a deeply divided parliament.
But the government’s survival depends on the tacit support of the centre-left Socialists, who oppose raising the retirement age but have so far abstained from calling a no-confidence vote.
“If parliament is not consulted, if we do not have the possibility of submitting amendments that would allow us to define the conditions for a return to balance in exchange for a return to 62 years, we will indeed be heading towards censure,” party leader Olivier Faure told BFMTV on Tuesday morning.
Bayrou is meeting negotiators from moderate trade unions and business lobbies on Tuesday to try to arrive at an agreement. “A historical agreement was close,” Bayrou said on Tuesday. “I can’t accept failure so close to the goal.”
Macron pushed through pension reform in the face of intense public opposition on the grounds that leaving the system unchanged would lead to unsustainable financial deficits, and defenders of the change note that even at 64 France has one of Europe’s lowest official retirement ages.
The National Assembly has been divided into three roughly equal blocks since Macron called snap legislative elections last summer in a failed attempt to check the rise of the far-right Rassemblement National party. His own centrist party ended up losing seats, resulting in a fractured lower house with no clear majority.
A first post-election government formed by former EU Brexit negotiator and centre-right politician Michel Barnier in mid-2024 collapsed following a historic no-confidence vote in December, forcing him to resign.
Bayrou, Macron’s centrist ally, was nominated by the president to form the next government. He was able to do so by offering concessions to lawmakers, including a pledge to revisit the contentious retirement reform based on the outcome of negotiations between business and labour lobbies, which have now concluded with no agreement.
The government will also need to pass a 2026 budget to be voted in the autumn at a time of deteriorating public finances and increased pressure on European nations to spend on defence. Bayrou is set to present new tax and spending proposals by mid-July. The government needs to find another €40bn in savings in 2026 to stick to deficit reduction plans and France’s pledges to the EU.
Both the budget and the current stalemate over pension reform could trigger no-confidence motions that threaten to collapse the legislature, sending France’s government back into turmoil after six months of relative calm.
If the Socialists decide to put forward a no-confidence motion, it is the RN, the largest single political party in parliament, that will have the decisive swing vote on whether the government survives.
Should Bayrou decide to let parliament decide on the pensions issue, that could allow politicians from the left to the far right to unite to reverse the increase in the retirement age and so contribute to even wider budget deficits than France is already facing. But if negotiators remain unable to reach a pensions compromise and the law is left unchanged, Bayrou risks strong opposition and a possible fall of his government in a censure vote.
“Seeing him stamping his feet and trying to go back on this discussion when he himself created the conditions for failure is absolutely irresponsible,” said Faure, who accused Bayrou of scuppering the talks from the start. “We have a prime minister who is struggling, looking for time, that’s his great speciality.”
