The British pound and the Swiss franc remain under pressure against the US dollar following the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, where the regulator left its key interest rate unchanged and signalled no rush to shift the course of monetary policy.
Despite easing inflation, the Fed has maintained a relatively hawkish stance, citing the need for convincing evidence of sustained disinflation. Combined with escalating global geopolitical tensions, this has supported the US dollar and contributed to its strength.
Against this backdrop, market participants have turned their attention to today’s decisions by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Bank of England (BoE). According to the consensus forecast, the SNB may lower its rate by 25 basis points to 0.00%, which could exert downward pressure on the Swiss franc.
Meanwhile, divisions persist within the BoE: while some members of the committee may vote in favour of policy easing, the majority are likely to support holding the rate steady. The outcome of the vote will be a key driver for the short- and medium-term trajectory of the pound.
In the coming sessions, markets are expected to closely monitor signals from the regulators and the performance of the dollar. Should the external backdrop remain unchanged—and if a rate cut in Switzerland is confirmed alongside a more dovish stance from the BoE—pressure on local currencies could intensify.
USD/CHF
The USD/CHF pair is trading above the 0.8100 mark, reflecting expectations of a rate cut by the Swiss regulator and the broader recovery of the US dollar. The potential policy easing by the SNB is being interpreted by markets as a pivot towards a more prolonged rate-cutting cycle, which could leave the franc more vulnerable.
Technical analysis of USD/CHF points to a possible test of the key resistance zone at 0.8250–0.8300, as a piercing line candlestick pattern has formed on the daily chart.
Events that could influence USD/CHF include:
- Today at 10:30 (GMT+3): Swiss National Bank interest rate decision
- Today at 10:30 (GMT+3): SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
- Today at 11:00 (GMT+3): Swiss National Bank press conference
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD pair remains weak, trading below the 1.3400 level amid divisions within the Bank of England. Should the BoE adopt a more dovish tone or if fewer members vote to hold the rate, the pound may come under additional pressure.
Technical analysis of GBP/USD indicates a potential strengthening of the bearish momentum, with a tower top pattern observed on the daily timeframe.
Key upcoming events for GBP/USD include:
- Today at 14:00 (GMT+3): Bank of England interest rate decision
- Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+3): UK Core Retail Sales Index
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