Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen recently delivered an in-depth analysis on his YouTube channel to over 880,000 subscribers, shedding light on the challenging phase Ethereum (ETH) is currently navigating. He asserts that Ethereum’s price trajectory is mirroring the market cycle of 2019, though it is shaped by distinct monetary policy dynamics that set this period apart.
Cowen emphasized that the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) price pair requires a significant shift in monetary policy to find its bottom, a process that inevitably involves market strain. “We’re in the painful period right now—this is the necessary stage before a bottom forms,” he stated. “The ETH/BTC pair hinges on a loosening of monetary conditions, which only comes after sufficient pressure builds.”
Reflecting on the 2019 cycle, he noted that ETH/BTC hit its low only after Ethereum’s price against the dollar (ETH/USD) breached a key support level—a moment that coincided with the Federal Reserve winding down its quantitative tightening measures.
What sets this cycle apart, Cowen argues, is the prolonged rigidity of monetary policy. “In 2019, we saw a policy shift from the Fed a year before Bitcoin’s halving. Now, we’re a year past the halving, and quantitative tightening hasn’t meaningfully ended. While the Fed has slightly slowed its balance sheet reduction, the tightening stance persists, stretching this cycle and intensifying market volatility.”
Cowen’s analysis draws attention to a striking pattern in the data: key price levels in the current cycle are roughly ten times those of 2019. For instance, when Ethereum broke its support in 2019, ETH/USD hovered around $130, whereas today’s equivalent support sits above $1,300. This “10x effect” underscores the market’s growth while amplifying the psychological and financial impact of price swings.
Yet, this tenfold price increase hasn’t compressed the cycle’s duration—rather, it has extended it. “The previous cycle’s peak-to-trough adjustment took about 12 months,” Cowen explained. “This time, we’re nearing two years. The prolonged timeline disorients investors accustomed to shorter cycles, and the ongoing pressure from monetary policy is the driving force behind this stretch.”
Unlike analysts focused solely on price movements, Cowen frames the “painful period” as an essential phase of market self-regulation. He views it as a crucible that tests the resilience of the crypto ecosystem. “This period weeds out speculators and strengthens those committed to blockchain’s core value,” he remarked. “The interplay of monetary policy dictates the ETH/BTC bottom, and historical patterns offer a lens to understand it.”
