Ireland elections: what happens next?

Ireland’s political landscape after 29 November’s general election looked “strangely familiar”, says Fintan O’Toole in The Guardian.

Familiar, because the two main incumbent parties, Micheál Martin’s Fianna Fail and Simon Harris’s Fine Gael, received almost exactly the same combined share of the vote as they did in 2020, and will therefore continue to govern.

Strange most obviously because Irish voters have “bucked the trend” in this “global year of elections” by failing to give the incumbents a “good kicking”. But also strange, because given that Ireland is enjoying full employment, overflowing public coffers and a booming export-led economy, the endorsement was “lukewarm”. As recently as 2007, the “twins’” combined share of the vote was 70%. It is now 43%.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

Sign up to Money Morning

Don’t miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Their declining popularity is not, as one might expect, due to a rise in the fortunes of the main opposition party, Sinn Fein, which was, in fact, the “biggest loser”. Its vote share fell from 25% to 20%, partly because support “leached” away to right-wing candidates exploiting anti-immigrant sentiment among voters, and partly because of “internal scandals” that have made the party look “at best incompetent, and at worst cynical”.

What’s next for Ireland’s political landscape?

So what next? Fianna Fail and Fine Gael have a combined 86 seats, just two short of the 88 needed to secure a majority in the Dail. They could either do a deal with Labour or the Social Democrats – 11 seats each – or with the right-wing party Independent Ireland, which has four, says the BBC’s Enda McClafferty.

Another option would be to turn to some of the 16 independents, but that “could mean a less stable coalition” as they would be “more likely to revolt on specific issues”, notes The Guardian’s Lisa O’Carroll. The front runner to be the next taoiseach (prime minister) is Martin, but at this stage, nothing “can be ruled out, as weeks, if not months” of political talks are on the cards.

This article was first published in MoneyWeek’s magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.