Canada’s Mark Carney will host world leaders in Kananaskis in coming days, with his plans for a unity G7 summit to unblock trade at the mercy of a new Mideast war and the temperament of Donald Trump.
More than a dozen leaders are heading to the Rocky Mountain resort for a gathering on Monday under the shadow of a rapidly escalating Israel-Iran conflict that threatens further upheaval for markets.
“Never before has a G7 summit confronted so many severe, interconnected crises, with so many new leaders and an unpredictable US president,” said John Kirton of the G7 Research Group at the University of Toronto.
Presidents and prime ministers will attend from states spanning the global north and south. But for Carney, who wants to project credentials earned as a central banker during Brexit and the 2008 financial crisis, the summit may boil down to one goal: showing he can handle Trump.
“It’s like preparing the red carpet for Godzilla,” noted a Canadian government official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity so they could speak openly.
The last time Trump was in Canada for a G7 meeting was in 2018, and that ended in an argument with then-prime minister Justin Trudeau, whom the president called “very dishonest and weak”. Trump refused to sign the traditional communiqué that signals unity among the world’s most important democracies. In his current term, Trump has raised tariffs on Canada and repeatedly declared that the country should become the “51st state” of the US.
“We just want unity at the summit but we don’t know what headspace the president will be in,” said an official from the prime minister’s office.
Carney, who was elected less than two months ago, has dropped the formality of the joint communiqué, preferring to “break it up into thematic statements” to avoid messy debates over language, the official said.
Heading into the summit, Trump has been consumed by the outbreak of war between Israel and Iran, his deployment of US troops to Los Angeles to quell protests over his immigration crackdown, and the military parade in Washington on Saturday. He has focused little on the G7.
A senior US official said Trump, who will arrive in western Canada on Sunday night, wanted to “make progress on top-level economic and security issues of shared concern”.
Among them were making “America’s trade relationships fair and reciprocal, unlocking new markets for American energy exports, and positioning the US to be the world leader and international partner of choice on AI technology”, the US official said.
The senior US official gave a nod to Carney by saying that Canada had “worked with G7 colleagues to craft short, action-oriented leader statements”.
“We appreciate Canada’s co-operation in the planning of this summit and their choice of a great location in Canada for these important conversations,” the official said.
Asked if he would challenge Trump over his assertion that Canada should become the 51st US state, UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer said: “But let me be absolutely clear: Canada is an independent, sovereign country and a much-valued member of the Commonwealth.”
An EU official on Saturday said the Israel-Iran conflict was “certainly going to change a bit the character of the meeting”.
“From our perspective, we have been concerned about Iran’s support to Russia for a while,” they said.
Part of Carney’s political calculations for the G7 has been to invite global power brokers such as India, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, although the latter is not attending.
“The invitation of India’s Modi and MBS shows a significant shift in Canada’s global outlook under Carney,” said Carlo Dade, from the Calgary-based Canada West Foundation.
As part of these preparations, Carney last week announced Canada’s plan to reach Nato’s defence spending obligation of 2 per cent of GDP by the end of the financial year in preparation for the G7 and a Nato summit at the end of the month.
Defence spending has angered Trump, who wants Nato members to spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has a fraught relationship with Trump, will be seeking assurances from the US president regarding a sanctions package that will slap 500 per cent tariffs on any country buying energy from Russia.
Ukraine “remains a difficult discussion with the US” but “G7 partners are moving forward with additional pressure on Russia”, the EU official said.
Kyiv has been pushing for western allies to increase economic sanctions against Russia in a bid to get Moscow to the negotiating table, even as Russian forces remain on the offensive.
Trump’s response to the EU-led push for a lowering of the G7-agreed Russian oil price cap, and how the US president treats Zelenskyy, will be closely followed as part of the summit’s choreography, a European official said.
The G7, held in the idyllic tourist location of the Rocky Mountains, will also be the first opportunity for the US, Mexico and Canada to meet to discuss their USMCA trade pact that is set for review next year but has been undermined since Trump launched wide-ranging tariffs on both of America’s trading partners.
“There’s rumblings of a sit-down but nothing confirmed,” said an official in the prime minister’s office. “But this is not going to be a miracle meeting, it is just about face time.”
It will also be the first G7 for Starmer, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba and Carney. But a host of world leaders, including those from Australia, Brazil and South Korea, will also attend.
South Africa’s President Cyril Ramaphosa is set to meet Trump only three weeks after a tense Oval Office meeting in which the US president made false accusations about a “genocide” of white farmers in the country.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s attendance is also viewed as part of Carney’s global play to improve relations after Canadian officials last year accused India of involvement in the 2023 murder of Canadian Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. A small contingent of Khalistan supporters is scheduled to protest against Modi’s appearance at the G7.
“This is all about pragmatism and practicality and less finger-waving as we saw before with Trudeau; Canada can’t afford to do that any more,” said Canada West Foundation’s Dade.
Additional reporting by David Sheppard
