Steel stocks are back in the spotlight, and it’s not just the furnaces heating up. Since President Donald Trump‘s late-May announcement of 50% tariffs on imported steel, the sector has re-rated sharply, with JPMorgan highlighting Nucor Corp NUE as the top pick with a potential 67% upside.
Analyst Bill Peterson says Nucor is best positioned to ride out the latest tariff wave, thanks to its product diversification and lower exposure to value-add sheet, which has recently underperformed. Plate and rebar prices, where Nucor has more skin in the game, are holding up stronger and could provide incremental upside heading into 2026.
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The broader sector isn’t celebrating just yet. Investors remain cautious, sensing tariff exemptions may still be on the table – particularly for USMCA partners Canada and Mexico. But that hasn’t stopped a short-term pop: NUE is up 10% since the tariffs were announced, outpacing Cleveland-Cliffs Inc CLF, Steel Dynamics Inc STLD and Commercial Metals Co CMC.
JPMorgan isn’t expecting a summer rally for steel prices. However, the bank sees a firming price floor, especially with scrap costs easing and mill utilization rising.
Why Nucor Leads The Pack?
Under a scenario with hot-rolled coil stabilizing at $925/ton and rebar near $900/ton, Peterson sees Nucor pulling ahead of the pack.
Utilization upside also favors Nucor, which was running at 80% in the first quarter—compared to Steel Dynamics’ 89% and U.S. Steel Corp‘s X Flat-Rolled division’s just 65%.
Steel investors are now facing a tale of two narratives: near-term caution versus long-term potential.
For Peterson, the long game still favors Nucor, especially if the tariffs hold and restocking kicks in later this year.
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