On The Radar – What to Watch This Week in Crypto

Sentiment couldn’t get much worse, with Fear and Greed at some of the lowest readings we’ve seen since 2023.

But is everything as bad as it seems? Or are we witnessing a disconnect between market sentiment and the fundamentals?

This week has delivered us a fresh round of inflation data out of the US and China that are pointing in an optimistic direction. More on this below.

Not to mention the US has just signed an Executive Order to create a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. This is arguably the largest growth catalyst for the industry since the launch of the Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in 2024.

So if we keep seeing the fundamentals continue to look more optimistic, is the market becoming irrationally bearish in the short term?

Related: Aussie Analysts Tackle Trump and Alt Season in Latest ‘Tapping Into Crypto’ Episode

Inflation Declines

Year-on-year inflation has fallen in the US, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) landing at 2.8% from last month’s reading of 3.0%.

Policy makers have spoken in recent times that inflation needs to trend towards their 2% target before they provide any easing to the market.

The US is in a delicate balance between fighting inflation and maintaining economic growth. Recent weak growth figures have heightened recession concerns. However, as inflation continues to fall, the Fed may soon pivot to more growth-friendly policies to prevent an economic downturn.

We have also seen manufacturers’ and producers’ costs decelerate inflation, with Core PPI (Producer Price Index) figures landing under expectations in the US overnight with a -0.1% move month-on-month. 

The inflation narrative is global, with China now technically in a deflationary economy. Their latest CPI figures, landed on Sunday at -0.7% year-on-year.

Checkout my latest YouTube video for more context on this:

Bitcoin – BTC

Lows holding | Price is still trading just outside of the range lows, a similar level as last week. 

February low swept | The monthly low from February ~$78,300 has been taken out this week. From here, we wait to see where the market goes next. A bullish scenario would be a move higher now. 

Bulls need to step up | Reclaiming the monthly open at ~$84,300 would be a good sign of life from the bulls. Should we see little action from the market, we could drop lower into the weekend and create new lows in the $70k’s. 

Related: Survey Says: Europeans Not Interested in CBDC, While ECB Eyes October for Prep Phase

Chainlink – LINK

Higher time frame level | Link is hitting a key multi-month Fibonacci level. If bulls were going to get interested, this would be an ideal area to watch. 

Reclaim the monthly open | I would be interested in the potential upside if we saw prices trading back above the monthly open ($14.80) and holding. 

Jupiter – JUP

2024 Lows | Jupiter is trading back at levels we haven’t seen in 2024, where it has set its all-time lows around this region. This price block is the last range of support on the chart. Failing here would result in new lows. 

Profitable protocol | Jupiter holds rank #5 in most fees generated in the last 30 days according to Defilama. It has generated $99m in this period. 

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