What the U.S.-China Trade Agreement Means for Markets [WSJ]
It goes much further than investors thought possible—not least because on Friday President Trump suggested an 80% tariff “seems right.” The current deal reduces the extra tariffs on China to 30%, made up of the base of 10% that will be matched by China, plus a 20% duty meant to make China do more to combat fentanyl.
But an even better reason for such a big bounce—3.1% on S&P futures and a 3.8% drop in the gold price as I write—is that it looks like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is now in control of trade policy. Put simply, the grown-ups are in the room.
How to Think About the Stock Market When Earnings Guidance Becomes Meaningless [WSJ via Yahoo!]
Analysts take their cues from the same corporate executives who are now issuing meaningless forecasts. In reality, the index could be much more expensive than it looks…. Analysts aren’t fully oblivious to the risks ahead: Despite first-quarter earnings figures coming in strong and more companies than average upgrading their second-quarter guidance, brokers still revised down their estimates for the second quarter by 2.4% in April—much more than they usually do. And they are applying larger downgrades to forecasts starting a year from now or later, which has historically been a decent predictor of the economy cooling.
Trump to Withdraw Nominee to Lead Consumer Bureau [NYT]
The Treasury Department said Friday that the president instead planned to nominate Mr. McKernan to serve as the department’s under secretary of domestic finance. Mr. McKernan was nominated in February to serve as the consumer bureau’s director and testified that month at a confirmation hearing before the Senate Banking Committee. His nomination was approved by the committee but had not yet been taken up by the full Senate.
Private-Equity Firm TSG Consumer to Buy Budget Gym Chain in Latest Fitness Deal [WSJ]
The deal values EoS at about $1.5 billion, including debt.
TSG is set to take over EoS from private-equity firm BRS & Co…. Earlier this year, boutique fitness chain Barry’s Boot Camp received fresh backing from private-equity firm Princeton Equity Group, and Leonard Green & Partners acquired Crunch Fitness. Last year, L Catterton acquired a majority stake in Pilates chain Solidcore.
Elizabeth Holmes’s Partner Has a New Blood-Testing Start-Up [NYT]
Billy Evans, who has two children with Ms. Holmes, is trying to raise money for a company that describes itself as “the future of diagnostics” and “a radically new approach to health testing….” If that sounds familiar, it’s because Theranos similarly aimed to revolutionize diagnostic testing.
‘Balkan beauty’ hedge funder known for steamy bikini selfies banned from US over immigration ‘lies’: sources [N.Y. Post]
The 36-year-old Croatian national, who holds British permanent residency, made a botched attempt last Saturday to attend the Milken Institute Global Conference…. Over the weekend, [Jasmina Midzic] confessed to authorities that she had been illicitly working in her $13,000-a-month job for her Miami Beach-based firm on a visitor visa, multiple senior officials said….
“They didn’t listen because I am a white European and I work for a hedge fund,” she claimed. “They got very offended that I don’t want American citizenship….”
“If they want to smear her, then I will see them in court,” said [her boos, James] Koutoulas, who drew SEC scrutiny after launching the anti-Biden “Let’s Go Brandon” coin.
